MALIBU, Calif. () — Unlike other natural disasters, predicting when an earthquake will strike is impossible.
However, the U.S. Geological Survey is able to forecast the likelihood of aftershocks once an earthquake occurs.
A look at the earthquake aftershock forecast
The aftershock forecast for Thursday’s 4.7 magnitude earthquake in the Malibu area shows you the chances of at least one aftershock within the next week.
Within the next week, the probability of an aftershock with a magnitude of 3 or above is 79%, which is quite high. But the probability goes down as the magnitude goes up.
It’s 19% for a magnitude 4 or higher, 2% for a magnitude 5 and above, and less than 1% for a magnitude 6 or 7 earthquake.
The Malibu area quake struck around 7:28 a.m. at a depth of nearly six miles. It originally registered as a 5.1, but was quickly downgraded. Several aftershocks rumbled the area over the following hour, including a 3.4 around 8:40 a.m.
This earthquake aftershock forecast is readily available on the USGS website after every earthquake.
Television,
