The US is the second largest greenhouse gas emitter and by far the highest historical emitter in the world.
Just days before COP29 began in Baku, Donald Trump won the US election.
Trump is a known climate change denier having repeatedly called global warming a hoax and pledged to once again withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement. The US is the second largest greenhouse gas emitter and by far the highest historical emitter in the world.
With other countries expecting a US row back on climate leadership over the next four years, it could provide a golden opportunity for someone else to step in and fill the gap. Or as politics leans right around the world, the shadow of the US election could limit action at this year’s summit.
US climate envoy: A ‘bitterly disappointing’ election result
At previous COP conferences, major deals have only been possible when the US and China have been able to talk face-to-face about the issues at hand. Previous US climate envoy John Kerry stepped down earlier this year – not long after his Chinese counterpart Xie Zhenhua announced he was retiring.
Together they aided negotiations at COP28 last year which ended in an agreement for the world to “transition away” from fossil fuels.
John Podesta has taken over from Kerry and told a press conference at the summit that this election was “bitterly disappointing” for those dedicated to climate action. Particularly, he added, because of the “unprecedented resources and ambition that President Biden and Vice President Harris brought to the climate fight”.
Podesta lamented that this particular result was “more difficult to tolerate as the dangers we face grow ever more catastrophic”. He emphasised Trump’s climate denialism saying his “relationship to climate change is captured by the words ‘hoax’ and ‘fossil fuels’.”
“None of this is a hoax,” Podesta added, “it is real”.
The new US climate envoy said it was clear the Trump administration will try to u-turn on many of the policies put in place by Biden.
But with months to go until Trump becomes president, the current administration is determined to make the most of the time they have left. In Baku, the superpower will continue to work towards climate progress – including building on a deal made in Dubai last year to triple renewable energy by 2030.
Podesta emphasised that support for renewable energy has now become bipartisan in the US, car manufacturers are still investing in electrification and hybridisation and the agricultural industry is still decarbonising.
“Are we facing new headwinds? Absolutely. But will we revert back to the energy system of the 1950s? No way.”
Will Donald Trump leave the Paris Agreement?
During his last term as President, Donald Trump withdrew the US from the Paris Agreement. Following three-year delay, the US finally became the first country to exit the pact on 4 November 2020.
One of President Joe Biden’s first actions in office was to sign an executive order to rejoin the agreement. The US formally rejoined on 19 February 2021 – 107 days after it left.
Now Trump looks set to exit the agreement once again and it won’t take as long this time. It could take just one year for the country to become one of just a handful of nations that aren’t part of the pact.
Former climate negotiator for the Obama administration Todd Stern has said that it would be “shocking” if Trump didn’t pull the US out of Paris again.
“So, I think countries now are going to be obviously upset and disappointed because, of course, they’ve already been through this.”
Politco reported in June that Trump could be pushed to go even further and leave the UN treaty that underpins the entire agreement. The US exiting the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) would be a big blow to international climate cooperation. It would sideline the country from crucial international talks.
The US choosing to take a backseat could go several ways. America’s influence on the rest of the world is not insubstantial and if it doesn’t contribute to global climate efforts it puts increased pressure on the rest of the world to reduce their emissions. Others could use it as an excuse to do less than they currently are with the world’s second-biggest greenhouse gas polluter out of the agreement.
Other countries like China, however, could use this as an opportunity to increase their influence over the Baku talks and step up in the absence of the US. With new national climate plans expected early next year and a new target for climate finance to come out of COP29, it will be a test of how committed the world is to making its climate commitments a reality.
Nine years into the Paris Agreement, experts say that at the very least it is unlikely that other nations will follow the US out of the door.
Uncertainty over climate finance
This year countries are due to make a renewed commitment to climate finance called the new collective quantified goal (NCQG). It is intended to replace the $100 billion (€94 billion) a year pledge made in Copenhagen in 2009.
Wealthy nations have only just started to meet this goal and now detailed analysis shows that at least $2.4 trillion (€2.4 trillion) a year is needed by 2030 to help developing countries meet their climate targets.
“Let’s dispense with the idea that climate finance is charity. An ambitious new climate finance goal is entirely in the self-interest of every single nation, including the largest and wealthiest,” UN climate chief Simon Stiell said in his opening address to delegates.
As Stiell says, that includes large, wealthy nations like the US. Contributions to climate funds from rich countries usually come based on pressure from other donors pledging large amounts.
With a second Trump term looming, the chances that the country commits to any significant amount of climate funding at COP29 are pretty low. It could leave other countries feeling less inclined to contribute as much money as they were before.
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